COUNTRIES AND companies which do not adapt to the internet will lose out on global on-line exports which Forrester Research estimates will reach $1,4-trillion in 2004.
Online trade will expand globally as firms use the Net to attack inefficiencies in today's international trade practices, says Forrester Research analyst Matthew Sanders.
However, cross-border trade will not flow equally among nations, resulting in an emerging split between countries that actively export and import using the Net and those that do not.
Forrester projects that Western Europe will lead all regions with $692 billion in global online exports in 2004, driven by Germany's $144 billion in online cross-border sales.
Over the same period North America will see more than 23% of its exports move online, led by the US with $210 billion in cross-border eCommerce.
Asia-Pacific, fuelled by $57 billion in Japanese online exports, will reach $219 billion in four years.
Sanders says countries will fall into one of two categories - Business extroverts or e-Business introverts.
Nineteen countries - the e-Business extroverts - will dominate online international trade. Led by Canada, Norway, and Denmark, these extroverts will represent more than 80% of online imports and exports.
Although the Net will impact countries in different ways, Forrester believes that national policies remain critically important.
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