The global trade outlook appears fragile but business confidence levels of supply chain and logistics executives remain steady.
This is according to DP World’s new Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report 2026, which reveals that 94% of respondents expect 2026 trade growth to match or exceed the pace of 2025, despite rising frictions and volatility.
The GTO Annual Outlook was developed with Geneva-based insights agency, Horizon Group.
The report’s findings are based on a survey of 3 500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
In total, 54% expect trade growth to be faster than 2025 and 40% expect it to be the same.
This is despite 53% anticipating high or very high policy uncertainty, 90% expecting trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged. Only 25% expect a negative impact on their business, with 49% expecting no effect and 26% even seeing a positive impact.
This frontline sentiment contrasts with some macro projections, with the IMF forecasting that trade growth (by volume) could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025.
Asked where trade growth potential is greatest in 2026, executives most frequently pointed to Europe (22%) and China (17%), followed by Asia Pacific (14%) and North America (13%).
The survey indicates that companies are responding to volatility by actively redesigning supply chains and trade routes.
This includes:
• Resilience as strategy – supplier diversification (51%), higher inventories (44%), and friend-shoring (36%) are cited among the most common strategic shifts planned for 2026.
• Route agility increases – 26% intend to use new routes, while 23% are evaluating them. Decisions are driven by cost savings (38%), improved connectivity/inland infrastructure (36%), and faster customs procedures/clearance times (35%).
• Border friction remains a choke point – 60% cite customs clearance as a leading cause of delays and disruption. Executives also prioritise investment in warehousing and logistics hubs (39%), road networks (36%), and border/customs processing infrastructure (36%).
DP World group chairperson and CEO, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, said global trade was becoming increasingly complex.
“Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably.”
Horizon Group managing partner, Margareta Drzeniek, said the survey revealed “confidence with contingency plans”.
“Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance,” she said.
