Cargo movements out of Nigeria could be affected by the ebola crisis if incidents of the disease increase in the country, warns Natznet Tesfay, head of Sub- Saharan Africa analysis at IHS Country Risk. Nigerian health minister Onyebuchi Chukwu has confirmed the spread of the virus beyond Nigeria’s financial capital Lagos to the oil hub Port Harcourt, bringing the total number of recorded cases in Nigeria to over 15. “If the virus continues to spread, business operations and trade from Nigeria will face an increasing risk of disruption from responsive measures, including border closures, flight restrictions, cargo screenings and evacuation of expatriate staff as seen in the three worst affected countries in West Africa,” says Tesfay. This could, in turn, affect the stability of the country. “Reduced economic activity is only likely to compound pressure on government expenditure, which is heavily focused on defence, given the expanding Boko Haram terrorist threat in the north, and the highly contentious general elections slated for February 2015. “The health emergency will probably result in the diversion of even more government funds from educational, agricultural and infrastructure projects,” he warns. INSERT Reduced economic activity is only likely to compound pressure on government expenditure, which is heavily focused on defence – Natznet Tesfay
