Ebola poses risk to SA's trade links with the continent

Up to 22 countries across Africa – many linked by growing truck, sea and air traffic with South Africa – are at risk from the Ebola epidemic, according to a new Oxford University study. Published in the journal eLife, the study says Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Togo, United Republic of Tanzania, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar and Malawi are all at risk. This is in addition to the seven countries that have already reported Ebola outbreaks. “Our map shows the likely ‘reservoir’ of Ebola virus in animal populations, and this is larger than has been previously appreciated,” said the study’s author Nick Golding, a researcher at Oxford University’s Department of Zoology. “This does not mean that transmission to humans is inevitable in these areas; only that all the environmental and epidemiological conditions suitable for an outbreak occur there.” The study also warns that increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of the virus in 1976 “suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past”. Outbreaks – or even the fear of outbreaks – in countries as close as Mozambique and Malawi could have far-reaching impacts on South Africa’s trade relations with other countries in Africa, as well as the rest of the world. A number of airlines have already cancelled flights to the worst-affected areas. Bringing the threat closer to South Africa will be the thousands of truckers who daily drive along the corridors linking Durban with Malawi, the Copperbelt and other countries in Africa. Shipping links between the hubs in Durban, Ngqura and Cape Town and the east and west coasts of Africa could also be affected.