Ebola-led border closure cuts trade by 50%

There’s a food crisis looming as the dreaded Ebola virus rampages through West Africa. The latest assessment from the World Health Organisation (WHO) shows 7 178 cases up to September 28, with 3338 deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. And in these countries panic reactions, like border closures – which the WHO rejects as being too disruptive for the low safeguard they provide – have been inevitable. And, in assessing the food situation, the World Food Programme (WFP) took Senegal, the low-risk member of the five – where the last confirmed case was reported on August 28 and all previous contacts have now completed a 21-day follow-up. It conducted a rapid, anecdotal market assessment of Senegal/Guinea border areas and examined the food flow to and from Guinea, which has had 950 confirmed cases and 535 deaths. The two main sub-regional markets visited were the southern towns of Diaoube and Kedougou, which act as important commercial hubs, linking traders from Senegal, Mali, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea Bissau and the Gambia. And traders there indicated a drop in market activities of a massive 50% since early August due to the border closure with Guinea. And this is a major impact, because all essential staple food commodities are traded. While Senegal exports millet, cowpeas, onions, groundnuts, and livestock to Guinea, it imports gari, palm oil, and fruits from Guinea. But fruit and palm oil from Guinea are no longer available in border markets. And closure of weekly markets is expected to lead to additional declines in trading activities in the sub-region. And experts say border closures, enforced by the Senegalese government contrary to advice given by the WHO, could have a serious impact on regional trade and disproportionately affect the poor during a record year for hunger in the region. The closure has not only led to a halt in food imports from Guinea, but also a decrease in trading activities with Dakar (pop: 1.05 million), Thies (pop: 320 000), and Touba (pop: 550 000). According to traders, 100 large trucks supplied Diaoube on an average market day last year, compared to only 10 to 20 trucks now. And all this is in foodstuffs remember, indicating a worrisome escalation of shortages. Also, at the supply end in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, farmers frightened of contracting Ebola are staying away from their fields, prompting fears that a food crisis could follow the epidemic. The unwelcome effect of this huge drop in food trade is that agriculture drives economic growth in all three countries worst afflicted by Ebola. They stand to lose US$359 million in economic output this year, according to the World Bank. And, according to the WFP, the threat of starvation in the West African region is looming. INSERT $359m What the three worst affected countries stand to lose in economic output.