Economically East Africa seems to be the most resilient African region in the face of Covid-19, thanks to less reliance on primary commodities and greater diversification, according to the African Development Bank (Af DB).According to the Af DB forecast written “amid the Covid-19 pandemic”, East Africa enjoyed 5.3% growth in 2019, which dropped to a still positive 0.7% growth in 2020. In 2021, growth in real GDP is projected at 3%, and in 2022, 5.6%. The top performers in 2021 are expected to be Djibouti (9.9%), Kenya (5%), Tanzania (4.1%) and Rwanda (3.9%).East Africa has been the second most diversified region in terms of exports over the past five years, with a concentration index of 0.37 (based on Unctad’s Hirschman-Herfindahl index), after North Africa (0.32) and followed by southern Africa (0.43), West Africa (0.48) and Central A f r ic a (0. 5 4).According to TradeMark East Africa (TMEA), EAC economies were resilient against the pandemic, with exports holding up well and the regional trade balance improving due to lower imports.In a recent report it found that although intra-regional trade initially suffered serious disruptions, it quickly recovered, as partner states ensured the movement of essential goods and adopted measures to minimise disruption on the main transport corridors while still observing the Cov id-19 health protocols.Key export sectors have recovered more quickly than expected. In Burundi raw coffee exports increased from an average of Burundia Franc (BIF) 654 in the second quarter to BIF 4500 in the third quarter last year, while Ugandan exports increased by approximately 21% between the second and third quarter. Rwanda’s non-mineral exports increased by 46%.According to “Africa’s Pulse”, published by the World Bank Group, individual East African countries are emerging from their worst-performing periods in years.Among East African Community (EAC) countries (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda), Kenya suffered its first recession in nearly two decades, but by the third quarter of 2020 the situation started improving thanks to strong agricultural production and exports. Similarly, Rwanda experienced its first recession in a decade, but the contraction slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2020, supported in part by a rebound in manufacturing.Tanzanian economic growth was supported by the construction and agriculture sectors.However, tourism-dependent economies such as Mauritius and the Seychelles are expected to start recovering only when international travel returns.Kenya is projected to see solid growth in 2021 as exports of agricultural products benefit from a pick-up in global demand and a reduced threat from locusts. The country's major agricultural exports are tea, coffee, cut f lowers and vegetables. Kenya is the world's leading exporter of black tea and cut f lowers.In contrast, growth in Ethiopia is expected to “moderate” to 2.3% in 2021, ref lecting a slowdown in domestic demand amid heightened political uncertainty.Tanzania’s economic outlook is positive, with real GDP projected to grow 4.1% in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022, due to improved performance of the tourism sector and the reopening of trade corridors.Uganda’s economic outlook is challenging. However, a pickup in the global economy in 2021 could boost Uganda’s exports, and if Covid–19 containment measures are less stringent, household consumption will recover, the Af DB predicts. For perspective, South Africa is expected to grow by around 3.1% in 2021 after contracting by 3.3% in 2020, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.
