E-commerce and AfCFTA reshaping sector

Opportunities arising out of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are being factored into strategic plans of courier and parcel companies, along with the rapid growth in e-commerce. There is an overlap between the two as African consumers and businesses bypass local distributors, importers and agents to purchase consumer goods, equipment, machinery and spares. Uniting 54 nations with a combined market of 1.4 billion people and gross domestic product of around $3.4 trillion, AfCFTA is designed to boost intra- African trade by removing tariffs and border delays. One of the early signs that it is working is that Africa’s e-commerce market is forecast by an International Mining and Resources Conference (IMARC) report to grow from $360.7bn in 2025 to $1 142bn by 2034, a 13.25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). It cites increasing economic stability and the rise of the middle class as drivers of the demand. “E-commerce platforms, due to their scalable nature and low overheads compared to traditional retail, become attractive investment opportunities,” the report states, adding that this would attract supporting investment in logistics. The Courier, Express and Parcel (CEP) market should benefit through additional parcel volumes, fulfilment, returns and last-mile services. It is expected to grow by 6-12% a year through to 2030, according to Grand View Horizon research. In South Africa, a Mordor Research report estimates the size of the CEP market at $223.6m in 2026. It is expected to reach $946.19m by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.08%. “Domestic operators continue to leverage extensive road networks and diversified pickup-point ecosystems, while international integrators concentrate on air-express and cross-border volumes that yield higher margins,” it states. “Cross-border e-commerce flows into Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe are accelerating, reinforcing Johannesburg’s status as a regional re-export hub.” Infrastructure upgrades such as the Kazungula Bridge over the Zambezi provide further support. The bridge cuts cross-border drive times by six hours, bolstering intra- Africa express demand. “Despite gains, customs harmonisation gaps and intermittent border ICT outages still hamper seamless parcel tracking. Future growth thus hinges on stepwise digital synchronisation among revenue authorities across SADC,” it adds. Local companies are investing ahead of the demand curve. “Heavy investment in electric vans, smart locker grids and route-optimisation software signals a structural pivot toward greener and more data-driven fulfilment systems. “Cost pressure remains, yet scale economics coupled with growing healthcare and B2B e-commerce flows point to new service niches capable of underpinning steady returns across economic cycles,” according to the report. ER