'Don't misjudge Africa's growth potential'

As the continent’s many ‘cheerleaders’ predict growth extending to a whopping 10% in some cases, an economics expert has cautioned against overexuberance. “Africa still faces many challenges if it is to achieve the forecast 5% economic growth over the next 40 years, a feat it has never managed to do in 2000 years,” says Dr Duncan Clark. While there are many who believe there is no constraint to the continent’s growth, he says we should be slightly more cautious in our predictions. This does not mean that Africa has not made some significant inroads in recent times and that its economic outlook is not positive. “Sub-Saharan Africa has come a long way in the past decade, but risks and challenges remain. We must not forget that Africa is not going to be the only game in town and therefore we need to be more realistic about the growth rates rather than have these outof- control figures that are being bandied about.” Clark predicted real growth would be closer to 3% over the next few years saying in most countries he was seeing growth slowing down rather than increasing to what many futurists were predicting. “Politics continues to play a massive role in Africa and one must never forget that politicians are short-term orientated, only ever working towards the next election. Even though there are several long-term growth plans in place for many African countries forecasting the high levels of growth, they do not take global trends into account or the fact that Africa’s growth is very closely linked to commodity cycles – all of which could impact on long-term growth strategies.” Clark said the reality remained that most African countries at present were struggling with unemployment and poverty despite their current 5% growth rate. “Asking them to sustain that over the next 40 years or so is a very big ask in my opinion.”