Warfare in the Middle East is seen as directly responsible for ending several consecutive months of reprieve in the pump price of petrol and diesel, especially January’s prices when the petrol price decreased by 62 and 66 cents for low-octane 93 and high-octane 95 respectively, while diesel dropped by 150 cents per litre.
Road Freight Association chief executive Gavin Kelly said: “The increase in fuel prices in March 2026 is a direct result of upward pressure on the international price of oil due to both supply and logistics risks following the start of hostilities between Iran and the US and Israel.
“The RFA has noted with both dismay and concern that the price of diesel is increasing by between R0.60 and R0.65 per litre.”
He added that, given that diesel is the primary source of fuel for most medium and heavy commercial transporters, this would place an immediate cost burden on daily operations.
“Transporters will be faced with – either immediately or later, depending on their operating models or agreements – factoring this increase (and any others that may arise) into their pricing when offering freight transportation services.
“This means that the gains which were achieved through the gradual reduction of the basic fuel price during 2025 will be erased and the consumer will, inevitably, begin to feel this change in increasing prices at the till.”
Kelly remarked that it was unfortunate that fuel is one of the basic input costs in a transportation business that has a huge impact on transport rates.
“The general economy will also not be immune – with this pressure becoming an upward inflationary force – thus affecting both future decisions regarding the repo rate and the value of the rand in the pocket of the man in the street.”
Earlier in the day, Jake Conley of Yahoo Finance reported that oil futures surged on Monday as traders took stock of an escalating US–Iran conflict in the Middle East that is increasingly threatening energy infrastructure in the region.
By Tuesday morning, Brent crude futures had increased by 13% to trade above US$82 a barrel in the first minutes of trading.
This was also confirmed by Dawie Roodt, chief economist of the Efficient Group, who noted that a further spike in the oil price on March 3 appeared to be settling.
Conley reported that the price had pared back to $79.
At the same time, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures moved up more than 8% to around US$72 per barrel.
“Brent is trading at levels not seen since January 2025 as the conflict (in the Middle East) spreads quickly through the Gulf region, while WTI has reached levels not seen since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in 2025,” Conley wrote.
