Copper output raises transport alarm bells

Volumes expected to double in two years JOY ORLEK ZAMBIA’S BURGEONING copper export industry is pushing southbound transport capacity to the limit. With new mines opening and copper production going through the roof, industry sources are predicting a 50% increase in volume over the next two to three years, and there are concerns over whether transport infrastructure will be able to match demand. According to Jim McIntyre of Cargo Management & Logistics, one of the established players in the region, rail services (southbound) cannot cope with the demand which has seen road transport dominance for southbound export traffic. And growing volumes are placing increasing demands on a limited supply. Current copper production amounts to 450 000 to 500 000 tons a year, according to McIntyre, and this is likely to increase to 1m tons a year by 2008. He estimates that three out of five copper shipments are moved via Dar es Salaam rather than Durban, a trend fostered by infrastructure shortfalls in Durban and consequent delays. CML, however, moves all its copper exports to Johannesburg for onward shipment via Durban or Port Elizabeth. “We find that freight rates to the Far East from PE are sometimes cheaper than Durban with the added advantage of less congestion,” says McIntyre, But available road capacity is a worry. “Northbound, ex SA, hauliers are running approximately 100 loads behind at the moment “A new mine opened last year. Another will open next year on the Zambia/DRC border and in 2007/8 there are more due to open. “If you consider the financial requirement - in excess of $250-$350m in machinery, plant and equipment - the projected figures for 2006/7/8 begin to look scary.” And while there has been huge South African involvement in Lusaka, which McIntyre describes as ‘like a suburb of Johannesburg’, import volumes are unlikely to match exports which could necessitate the empty repositioning of trucks in the region to cope with the growing demand.