Global demand for new container ships remains high, according to trade group BIMCO’s latest market analysis report.
The report highlights that orders are once again booming, with order volume at its third-highest level since 2008, following a brief slowdown in late 2023.
BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, said year-to-date contracts had already exceeded the total orders received last year. The company has calculated that a total of 10.47 million TEU of new capacity has been contracted for since the start of 2021, adding 44% of new capacity to the sector.
According to BIMCO, the rise in orders started in late 2023 and has accelerated throughout this year with demand for ultra-large vessels boosting the global fleet’s capacity to new heights.
Rasmussen said the 1.59 million TEU capacity contracted so far in 2024 was the third-highest since 2008, only exceeded during the first seven months of 2021 and 2022.
Combined with the 8.86 million TEU contracts between 2021 and 2023, the report highlights that the current wave has already surpassed the previous four-year contracting record of 8.31 million TEU ordered between 2004 and 2007.
Additional capacity will continue to be added to the fleet, according to BIMCO.
Maersk is finalising orders and charters for 50 to 60 newbuild dual-fuel vessels totalling 800 000 TEU as part of its fleet renewal programme. It expects to take delivery of 160 000 TEU of capacity a year from 2026 to 2030.
MSC, which already has capacity of more than six million TEU and a further 1.8 million TEU on order, recently signed a new partnership agreement with China’s Hengli Heavy Industry.
“The fleet is expected to grow at least 12 percent before the end of the decade, equal to an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent. Although cargo volume growth might match that pace, we could see pronounced oversupply if fleet growth ends higher and the Red Sea crisis ends, lowering ship demand significantly,” said Rasmussen.
In addition, shipping lines have been slow to recycle vessels due to growth in demand for services. Since 2021 150 ships with a total capacity of 240 000 TEU have been recycled.
“In the coming years, recycling could increase significantly and partly or fully retire the 10 percent of capacity and 20 percent of ships that are currently over 20 years old,” Rasmussen said.
According to BIMCO the average age of container vessels has risen 13 years at the beginning of 2021 to 13.9 years in 2024.
