Coal shipments are expected to grow between 4% and 5% in 2023 but will decline by 1%-3% in 2024, according to Bimco chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen.This comes as the International Energy Agency forecasts a global rise in coal demand of 0.4% in 2023, reaching a new peak before falling 0.1% in 2024. For advanced economies, in 2024 the agency expects coal demand to decline faster than it increases in China, India, and Southeast Asia combined. Until now, in 2023, China had driven the increase in global coal shipments, said Rasmussen.“Strong economic growth at the start of the year followed by heatwaves in the late spring and summer have caused fossil fuel electricity production to rise 5.3% year-on-year. However, coal inventories have increased amid both higher imports and mining. As such, coal shipments into China could grow at a slower rate in the second half of 2023,” he said.According to Rasmussen, coal imports in China are expected to continue to grow in 2024 since prices for imported coal are lower than for domestically mined coal. “But, the outlook for India, the second-largest coal importer, remains uncertain. So far in 2023, higher coal mining has caused imports to fall, even as electricity demand has increased. If India continues to boost domestic supplies successfully, it could accelerate the decline in global coal shipments in 2024.”
