Capacity overtakes demand in global containership fleets

The number of containership
deliveries since the start of
the year passed the 1 million-
TEU mark in mid-October.
However, shipping lines
have not felt any “noticeable
increase” in capacity on
the South African routes,
according to Jonathan Horn,
Safmarine’s Africa regional
executive.
“Most of the supply chain
challenges we’ve faced
this year (in SA) have been
related to port congestion,”
Horn told FTW.
“These were primarily
associated with the
problems experienced with
the implementation of the
Transnet Port Terminals’
new IT system, Navis, at the
Durban Container Terminal.
“The implementation
problems have been felt
throughout the industry.
Container moves have
dropped, vessels have
been delayed, and landside
productivity in the port has
been affected. This said,
the situation is gradually
improving.”
However, the line has three
4 500-TEU Wafmax vessels
on order for delivery between
February and June 2012 and
four 18 000dwt MPV vessels
to be delivered between
November 2011 and March
2012.
The total capacity being
added to the carrier’s fleet is
1 200 TEUs in 2011. In 2012
the carrier will add 17 100
TEUs.
The carriers behind the
current global orderbook
are set to benefit from a
significant cost advantage.
The carriers’ first action
after emerging from the
worst recession in container
shipping history ever, was to
order even more capacity and
new orders were placed in an
already over-supplied market.
According to analyst
Alphaliner, a total of 154
ships have been distributed
this year and a further
280 000 TEUs is scheduled
for delivery over the next ten
weeks, bringing the expected
deliveries to 1.28 million
TEUs for the full year.
The orderbook is heavily
skewed toward large vessels.
There is a growing trend to
deploy ships of 7 000-10 000
TEUs on north-south routes.
The number of “nondeliveries”
due to
cancellations, deferrals
and slippage has fallen to
8.5% – twice the long-term
historical levels, as the bulk
of the delivery deferrals was
negotiated in 2009 and 2010.
As it turned out, 2009 and
2010 were exceptional years
as the financial crisis led
owners and carriers to defer
the deliveries of a significant
part of the orderbook, as
well as to cancel part of their
orders. Such crisis-driven
initiatives were not to be
repeated in 2011.
Cancellations have actually
been marginal this year, with
no impact on the deliveries
scheduled for 2011. Actual
deferrals and slippage are
expected to reach some 120
000 TEUs , or only 8.5% of
the expected deliveries this
year, based on the Alphaliner
database, which is updated in
real time to incorporate the
latest delivery schedules.
The value of the vessel
orderbook currently stands at
US$57 billion, according to
Alphaliner figures. Of this,
$30 billion was committed