‘Billions’ is most accurate estimate of strike losses

Just how much has the
Transnet strike cost SA?
If you say “billions” you
will be as accurate as any
of the estimates, because
– even using firm figures
on the SA gross domestic
product (GNP) and trade
stats – you’d still be short
of a lot of exact numbers,
like actual wages lost and
the cost of industrial
shut-downs.
One of the most
acceptable guesstimates
was that of Business Unity
SA (Busa) which calculated
that the cost to the local
economy was about
R3.5-billion a week – or
a total for the three week
strike of about R10.5-bn.
But some other estimates
are even higher. Using
extrapolations from a threeyear-
old SA Navy document
by the Durban Harbour
Carriers’ Association
(DHCA), it can be estimated
that import and export trade
across the border (including
the SA coastline as a border)
is almost R10-bn per week.
That means that trade lost
was about R30-bn for the
three week work stoppage.
However, as a maritime
specialist in the SA
Association of Freight
Forwarders (Saaff)
told FTW, that is not
permanently “lost” – but
delayed somewhere along
the supply chains in and out
of the country.
But nonetheless that
R30-bn worth of goods
was not sold during the
strike, or used in industrial
production, and those three
weeks have gone forever, so
the GNP for this year will
be considerably lower than it
would have been without the
loss of those three weeks of
economic activity.
And, another authoritative
commentator told FTW,
that three week loss is only
a short-term hiccup. But
the longer-term damage
done to the SA reputation
as an exporter is enormous,
after supply chains had
been severely disrupted
and promised exports
would have failed to arrive
timeously – and, in many
cases, export contracts have
been permanently lost.
The South African
Chamber of Commerce and
Industry noted this longerterm
consequence.
“SA operates in
competition with other
developing nations and
such negative perceptions
have the potential to
divert investments to our
competitors such as India
and Brazil,” said a chamber
statement.
And, where some
products were marginally
price-competitive before
the strike, the very fact that
shipping lines have imposed
“a congestion surcharge”
could kill this marginal
advantage.