Global airlines have marginally lowered their industry-wide profit forecast for 2025, citing mounting trade tensions, waning consumer confidence, and continued disruptions in aircraft deliveries.
IATA now expects the sector to post a combined profit of $36 billion, down from its previous estimate of $36.6 billion issued in December 2024.
In a statement released on Monday, IATA pointed to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain constraints as the primary factors behind the revision. The industry body also criticised what it called “unacceptable” delays in aircraft deliveries, which have stalled expansion and fleet renewal plans for several carriers.
“These delays are undermining airlines’ ability to meet growing demand and optimise their operations,” the association said.
Despite the slight downgrade, the 2025 profit forecast remains higher than the $32.4 billion posted in 2024, buoyed by lower fuel prices and continued recovery in passenger traffic.
However, IATA warned that deteriorating global trade relations – particularly between major economies – along with tightened immigration controls and weaker consumer sentiment, were creating headwinds for airline profitability.
Industry observers say the cautious outlook reflects a broader trend of macroeconomic volatility and persistent supply chain challenges that continue to weigh on global transport sectors.
