Airfreight volumes should see strong growth next year

FROM ITS current depths of depression, international airfreight volumes should start to show a rapid upswing from the year 2003. This is according to an in-depth airfreight market analysis conducted by the German economics research institute, MGI, and commissioned by Lufthansa Cargo. The average annual growth rate of 6.7% in worldwide airfreight volumes between 1995 and 2000 came to a sudden collapse last year - hit by the September 11 tragedy accelerating an already evident global economic downswing. According to MGI, the volumes of freight will only grow at 1.8% up to the year 2005. ÒIt should be taken into account, however that the downswing of 2001, and the virtual stagnation in 2002, will be followed in the year 2003 by a strong growth surge,Ó the report states. Growth will then find its level in the period 2005-2010, according to MGI, at constant annual rates of 5.7%. According to its statistical analysis, the institute estimates that the annual growth rate for the period 1995-2010 as a whole will average out at 4.7%. ÒIn terms of tonnage this means that worldwide airfreight volumes will double in the space of this 15 years.Ó Some 11 404 585-tons were transported in 1995. According to the forecast, the corresponding figure for the year 2010 will be 22 751 508-t. ÒForecasts,Ó said MGI, Òindicate that 2002/2003 (at 7.8% growth) and 2007/2008 (6.6%) will be two years marked by strong growth. ÒThe years 2004/2005 (5.2%) and 2006/2007 (5.1%), on the other hand, are expected to be somewhat weaker.Ó On airfreight development 1995-to-2010 in the five major commodity groups - currently ranked as perishables, construction & engineering, textiles & wearing apparel, documents and small packages, and computers, peripherals and spare parts - MGI forecasts that there will be a change at the top. ÒThe most significant commodity group in quantitative terms,Ó it said, Òis construction and engineering. ÒIn the year 2003, this commodity will have replaced perishables as the most important category.Ó Another of the big growers in the Top 5 is computers. ÒIn 1995,Ó said MGI, Ò699 792-t of goods from the computer industry were transported as airfreight. ÒThis volume will more than triple to a figure of 1 988 945-t in the year 2010 - corresponding to an annual growth rate of 7.5%.Ó African airfreight traffic, meantime, will show hardly any growth, according to MGIÕs analysis. ÒAirfreight in Africa will only increase by an annual 0.4% in the next five years and by an annual 1.7% from 2005 to 2010.Ó