Air cargo in 22.6% free fall in December

Global international cargo traffic plummeted 22.6% in December last year compared to the same month in 2007, according to figures released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata). International passenger traffic showed a 4.6% drop. For the full-year 2008, international cargo traffic was down 4.0%, passenger traffic showed a modest increase of 1.6%, and the international load factor stood at 75.9%. “The 22.6% free fall in global cargo is unprecedented and shocking. There is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001, when much of the global fleet was grounded, the decline was only 13.9%,” said Giovanni Bisignani, Iata’s director general and CEO. Air cargo carries 35% of the value of goods traded internationally. The collapse in the airline industry’s freight business is a reflection of 20-30% declines in export and import volumes being reported across Asia, North America and Europe as the global recession reached new depths in December. Asia-Pacific carriers, accounting for 45% of international cargo, led the December decline with a 26.0% contraction compared to the previous year. Latin American carriers saw cargo drop 23.7%; North American carriers 22.2% and European carriers 21.2%. Single-digit declines were recorded by Middle Eastern carriers (-9.2%) and African carriers (-8.0%) “2009 is shaping up to be one of the toughest years ever for international aviation. The 22.6% drop in international cargo traffic in December puts us in uncharted territory and the bottom is nowhere in sight. Keep your seatbelts fastened and prepare for a bumpy ride and a hard landing,” said Bisignani. Airlines registered a US$5 billion loss in 2008. For 2009 Iata is forecasting a further loss of US$2.5 billion based on a fuel price of US$60 per barrel, a decline of 3.0% in passenger volumes, a drop of 5.0% in cargo traffic and yield deterioration of 3.0%. Industry revenues are expected to contract by US$35 billion (from US$536 billion in 2008 to US$501 billion in 2009).