This week’s announcement that the “old couple” of the liner trade, Maersk and MSC, has decided to dissolve its 2M vessel-sharing agreement (VSA), is only the beginning of expected ‘divorce proceedings’ across the liner trade, says Lars Jensen, container shipping stalwart.
With apparent reference to the other two VSA alliances – THE Alliance (Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, HMM, YML), and Ocean Alliance (Cosco, OOCL, Evergreen, CMA CGM) – the former Maersk executive has said: “My view is that this is only the beginning of a reshaping of the alliance/VSA constellations on especially the major east-west trades.”
Jensen, who heads up liner trade consultancy Vespucci Maritime these days, added that the dissolution of 2M, which has been in operation since 2015 and was initially agreed upon for a period of ten years, will change the competitive dynamics on the major east-west trades for all major carriers.
“Clearly, all carriers will take a close look at which threats and opportunities this will bring forth.
“In essence, this should be seen as the first domino of many to fall over the next one to two years.”
Although MSC and Maersk will only officially part ways in January 2025, expectations are that the next two years will most likely bear the scars of a messy separation, coming as it does when the liner trade is in a state of volatility.
Said Jensen: “Even if 2M formally runs until January 2025, it should be expected that Maersk’s and MSC’s networks on the alliance trades will begin to deviate even more in 2023 through different VSA and slot-charter agreements.”
Although it’s not clear who initiated the split, news of the 2M dissolution comes on the back of rapid fleet expansion by MSC, a position that has consolidated its capacity superiority over Maersk, bragging rights that previously belonged to the Danish line.
However, since August 2020, Maersk’s Swiss alliance partner has embarked on an aggressive fleet expansion strategy, buying 250 second-hand vessels.
Its newbuild order book has also ballooned, with vessel capacity for 1.7 million TEUs.
MSC has pushed container expansion to levels never before seen in the industry.
