Global freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta has forecast a decline in airfreight rates in 2026, as the industry braces for an anticipated surplus of cargo capacity that is expected to outpace demand growth.
Xeneta’s latest market outlook indicates that capacity expansion across key trade lanes is likely to put downward pressure on rates next year.
The company projects that while demand for air cargo will continue to rise modestly, the pace of fleet growth and restored bellyhold capacity will exceed demand gains, creating an oversupplied market environment.
Industry analysts note that such a development would mirror the cyclical nature of airfreight markets, following a period of tighter capacity and elevated pricing in the years immediately after the pandemic.
Xeneta’s commentary suggests that, in response to this shift, shippers are increasingly expected to favour longer-term contracts over volatile spot market bookings in an effort to secure more predictable pricing. This trend has already begun to take hold during 2025, as airlines and freight forwarders seek to stabilise revenue streams amid fluctuating demand levels.
While the forecast reflects growing confidence in global supply-chain recovery, Xeneta cautions that market dynamics remain vulnerable to external shocks, including geopolitical tensions, fuel price volatility, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The company’s outlook aligns with data showing a gradual decline in load factors and yield pressure through 2025.
Analysts at Air Cargo News also reported that Xeneta expected the overall market to face “a more challenging rate environment” next year, as available capacity continued to expand faster than underlying demand.
However, the platform stresses that forecasts are subject to change, as the air cargo market remains highly sensitive to global trade patterns and disruptions.
