A clearer picture is emerging of the possible impact that Russia’s war in Ukraine could have on global exports from these two countries.
Much has been made of oil and gas outflows ever since the government of Vladimir Putin went on the offensive a week ago today, but a look at the full bouquet of so-called “four-digit harmonised system commodities” tells a far bigger story.
Apart from energy exports, “there are plenty of other potential chokepoints, ranging from food staples and strategic minerals to luxury items”, news service Bloomberg reports.
And, not forgetting that Russia is using Belarus to bludgeon Ukraine from the north, “more than 130 economies have at least one good or commodity import that is predominantly sourced” from these three countries.
Egypt is by far their biggest trade partner in Africa, having spent upwards of $5 billion on importing 86% of its wheat from Ukraine and its aggressors since 2019.
Other African importers of commodities from these countries for the same period, Bloomberg reports, are South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, Senegal and Niger, all of which spent more than $500 million on inflows.
In the Americas, Brazil and the US are major importers of goods from the combatant states, with the former spending $2.3 billion on Russian fertiliser since 2019.
The US sits in the same bracket of having imported more than $1 billion worth of goods from these countries for the period 2019 to the present.
Peru is the only other country in the Americas reliant on a significant volumes of incoming commodities from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, having spent more than $500 million on imports for the period.
In Europe it’s Finland that particularly stands out as a trade partner of Russia, having imported 90% of its nickel from Russia since 2019, amounting to more than $5 billion in trade.
In Europe all the Scandinavian countries, the UK, Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and further east from the Balkans to the Caucasus, have imported goods of $500 million and more since 2019.
Poland, Germany and Turkey each imported more than $20 billion in commodities from the three countries now at war.
Much further east, China and Kazakhstan sit in the same bracket of $20 billion or more, with India, Pakistan, Mongolia and other Asian countries a little further down the ladder but having imported substantial amounts of commodities.
Countries in southern Asia, especially Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, have all imported at least $1 billion or more of commodities from the conflict countries.
No similar data was recorded for the Antipodes.
Most other countries that formed part of Bloomberg’s research appear to have imported less than $500 million in commodities from Belarus, Ukraine and Russia.
