Ukrainian drone strikes cripple Russian oil exports

Ukraine has intensified its campaign against Russia's energy sector with a series of long-range drone attacks that targeted key oil infrastructure in the Baltic region, causing significant disruptions to the Kremlin's export pipelines.

The assault on September 12 focused on the Primorsk oil terminal – a vital hub on the Gulf of Finland – where explosions damaged two tankers and forced a temporary shutdown of loading operations.

Maritime security experts confirmed that plumes of smoke had risen over the port, captured in footage circulating on social media.

At the time, 11 merchant vessels were berthed nearby, underscoring the precarious position of Russia's so-called shadow fleet, instrumental in circumventing Western sanctions.

The vessels struck were the Sierra Leone-flagged Aframax tankers Kusto and Cai Yun, both of which are subject to international restrictions. One of the ships reportedly caught fire briefly while moored, although emergency crews managed to contain the blaze without any reported casualties or risk of an oil spill.

Russian authorities acknowledged that a vessel and a pumping station at the site had ignited, but they maintained that the incident posed no broader environmental threat. The defence ministry further claimed to have intercepted more than 200 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles across the country that night, including at least 30 in the Leningrad oblast alone.

This operation represents a landmark escalation, as it is the first instance in which Ukrainian forces have directly inflicted damage on shipping in Russia's Baltic ports.

Primorsk, which handled an average of 1.5 million barrels of crude per day last month, serves alongside the nearby Ust-Luga facility as the primary conduit for Russian oil and refined products destined for major buyers in China and India. These routes have assumed heightened importance since European Union embargoes took effect in late 2022, funnelling billions in revenue to Moscow's war chest.

In a broader barrage that same evening, Ukrainian drones also hit pumping stations supplying Ust-Luga, as well as refineries in the regions of Bashkortostan (Ufa), Smolensk and Leningrad (Kirishi).

Analysts at Bloomberg have estimated that the cumulative impact could idle up to 250 000 barrels per day of refining capacity – equivalent to roughly 5% of Russia's total output. Officials in Kyiv have suggested that the strikes may now be costing Russia as much as $41 million in daily export revenues, a figure that has already contributed to a near-2% spike in global oil prices.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the raids during his televised address on Saturday evening, describing fires at Russian refineries, terminals, and storage sites as the swiftest and most potent form of sanctions.

He said such actions had substantially curtailed Moscow's oil industry, thereby constraining its military capabilities, and asserted that the ongoing conflict was fundamentally driven by Russia's dependence on hydrocarbons.

Zelenskyy called on international partners to maintain pressure on these energy exports, characterising the drone operations as sanctions that deliver immediate results.

The attacks come amid a surge in Ukrainian long-range strikes since August, which US assessments indicate have already knocked out around 17% of Russia's refining infrastructure. This has led to domestic fuel shortages and mounting fiscal strains for the Kremlin, even as it had anticipated ramping up western port shipments by 11% this month.

Russian state media has sought to minimise the fallout, attributing some damage to falling debris rather than precise hits, but independent verifications confirm Ukrainian accounts.

The incident has ratcheted up regional tensions, with NATO allies reporting incursions by Russian drones into Polish and Romanian airspace. In response, Britain has announced additional measures targeting vessels in Russia's shadow fleet, signalling a unified front against the Kremlin's economic lifelines. As winter approaches, further disruptions to these export arteries could exacerbate vulnerabilities on both sides of the front line.