While peace-brokering and rapprochement between the powers that be in 2025 seemed to support the notion of re-establishing maritime traffic through the Suez Canal – or at least a semblance thereof – Cape of Good Hope (CoGH) rerouting seems here to stay.
Moreover, cautions shipping platform Xeneta, an impatient shift back to Egypt’s much shorter east-west waterway could trigger sharp market reactions, Trans Info reports.
This assessment of global shipping, in which the larger lines have expanded their fleets to accommodate capacity requirements, was expressed just before the new year and has unfortunately found traction in the geopolitical volatility that has marked early January.
Whereas CMA CGA formed the vanguard for a circumspect return to Red Sea voyages, initially under naval guard, sailings south of the Suez remain a very risky business, Xeneta says.
Since its year-end market analysis, uncertainty was the one big issue that unfortunately followed in the wake of 2025, despite carrier hopes of gradually withdrawing from CoGH deviations.
Not only is this highly unlikely, but the cost implications are feeding into liner trade hesitancy to return to the Suez faster than expected.
Xeneta says that these include insurance expenses against the likelihood of attacks off the coast of Yemen, charter-rate unpredictability, and fleet shifting away from safer, albeit longer trade lanes, such as the 10-days minimum it takes to sail around Africa between Europe and Asia.
Currently lines are sustaining a delicate balance, whereby most vessels on the east-west trade sail around the Cape while carrier owners keenly observe developments in the Red Sea.
Should the situation south of the Suez remain relatively calm for an extended period, a disproportionate shift back to the waterway could still have significant ripple effects, Xeneta predicts.
Most importantly, it could weigh down on spot rates because of overcapacity as more vessels are taken out of the CoGH service and are reassigned to Red Sea rotations.
Contract clients can also expect serious disruption to rates established along CoGH terms.
According to Trans Info, “Xeneta continues to argue that flexibility will be crucial in 2026.
“Greater use of index-linked pricing, shorter contract durations or diversified sourcing strategies could help shippers reduce the risk of being locked into rates that no longer reflect market realities if capacity conditions change quickly.”
