Exports to the United States have dropped 46% since April 2025, with small direct-to-consumer (D2C) businesses hit hardest.
This is according to the SME Export Index, launched on October 20 by South African international shipping platform TUNL.
Said to be the first index to track the true impact of US tariffs on South African small to medium enterprises, the index is based on real shipping volumes from a fixed cohort of 1 850 South African exporters.
It also provides a monthly barometer of how tariffs are affecting small South African businesses that ship globally. These include household names like Ciovita, Versus Socks, Freedom of Movement, Old School Brand and Melvill & Moon.
A low-value barrier that protected certain exports has now also fallen away.
“Although the new 30% reciprocal tariffs were announced in April, consumers were largely shielded by the $800 de minimis waiver, which allowed packages valued at under $800 to enter the US duty-free,” TUNL chief executive and co-founder, Craig Lowman, says.
Revoked on August 29, the cancelled waiver means all packages are now charged a tariff, irrespective of the value of the goods.
Combined with the reciprocal tariffs, this significant change led to a sharp drop-off in US shipments in September as US consumers balked at import costs, a TUNL statement says.
“Our data shows a 46% drop in South African SME export volumes to the US last month, compared to the April 1 baseline, which we chose because it was just before the new tariffs were announced,” Lowman says.
“SMEs represent jobs, entrepreneurship and the future of South African cultural exports. The US tariffs have landed like a sledgehammer on our merchant community of small exporters, who are being priced out of the US market.”
TUNL chief operating officer Aretha Coopers adds that the US has traditionally been a big growth market for local SMEs.
“However, with tariffs at this level, it’s almost impossible to compete on price without destroying margins. For SMEs, there’s just no room to absorb that kind of cost. This is a global macroeconomic situation and affects many small businesses around the world.”
Looking at logistics, she says: “We believe transparent costs are critical to convert browsers into buyers.”
The index clearly illustrates why visibility to duties and taxes is so important for SME exporters, Cooper says.
“However, for some merchants it makes more sense to pivot their exports to other geographies, where existing trade agreements can provide relief from duties.”
But pivoting away from US tariff fallout is impossible for some exporters, such as Mark Fanner, the owner of Fanner Guitar Works, a shipper of handmade ukuleles, guitars and frames.
“They have absolutely destroyed my business,” he says of US tariffs.
“The first weeks after the new tariffs, there were no orders from the States. We now have to add about 39% to every shipment, between tariffs, duties and fees. Sales are down roughly 50% and our refund rate has tripled since August.”
