Recovery in advanced economies appears to be under way although it remains fragile, according to credit insurer Coface.
After the brief downtick recorded during the first quarter, resulting from number of temporary factors like the fall in energy sector investment and harsh weather conditions, the US economy rallied sharply from Q2 onwards (+0.9% q/q), driven by both household consumption and investments.
There are however two clouds on the horizon, says Coface. “The strong dollar is likely to continue weighing on exporting companies and the continued slide in the oil price could have contrasting effects on the US economy by the end of the year.”
In the eurozone, successive quarters have recorded positive growth indicators: +0.3% q/q during the second quarter, after +0.4% between January and March. Coface believes multiple factors are supporting the Eurozone economy, among them lower unemployment (10.9% in July, down 0.7 point of percentage over one year), less rigorous budgetary policies, and a low inflation rate which is benefiting household consumption.
Economic growth rates lack consistency however. Although growth in Spain should exceed 3% this year, it will be more moderate in Germany (+1.6% expected in 2015 and 2016) and particularly France (+1.1% and +1.4% respectively) and in Italy (+0.8% and +1.3%).
