Business orders for goods and services of all descriptions remain one of the most reliable leading indicators of future economic direction, and recent readings show that orders have been moving upwards, according to Export Development Canada (EDC). EDC chief economist Peter Hall sees that the upward movement spans multiple regions of the world and a large variety of industries. "Sustained growth going forward will tell the tale for global growth," he said. While he is pleased that the growing sophistication of emerging markets is producing solid data to work with, Hall also finds more sustainable reasons to be positive from assessing global freight movements. "If orders are a strong signal, then freight shipments shouldn't be far behind. After all, inputs have to be shipped before stuff can be made and delivered. Down at the bottom of a pile of other cyclical indicators is the US freight services index. And I'm happy to say that, but for a one-off interruption last October, steady growth in this index has now taken it beyond its previous peak level in early 2005. If it's right, it is saying good things about the world's growth engine," he said.
Reason to hope for buoyant global consumer demand
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