Project reveals interesting twist in rail to road shift

A RESEARCH project undertaken by a master’s student at the University of Johannesburg to determine the extent of the modal shift from rail to road over the past decade reveals some startling facts about who indeed has been the main beneficiary in the move away from rail. According to Professor Gerrie Prinsloo, speaking at a Transport Forum held in Gauteng last week, it’s not the road freight industry that has increased volumes substantially but rather companies that operate their own road transport and whose core business is not transport. While the results of the survey were disputed by a number of hauliers present at the forum, Prinsloo was adamant that the sample was a valid cross-section and results were based on information received from 7000 questionnaires sent to all sectors of the economy in SA. The project had various objectives, says Prinsloo. “It was intended to determine whether there is a relationship between economic growth and the conveyance of goods and to determine what the share of the various transport modes would be in the total conveyance. “It was concluded in 2004 and written in 2005 and provided results that we could compare with a similar study undertaken in 1991 to establish the extent of the shift from rail to road.” Clearly there is a direct relationship between economic growth and growth in the transport sector. The table on page 20 compares volumes carried in 1991 with volumes carried in 2004 by the different modes and reveals that transport growth has kept pace with GDP growth. But while rail’s percentage of the total market has decreased from 14.2% in 1991 to 9.8% in 2004, cargo carried by outsourced road transport operators has remained fairly stable from 24.5% to 24.7%. “We see, however, that the biggest percentage movement from rail has gone to own operators – in other words private road transport operators whose main business is not transport. “There is a continued cry about the level of service provided by rail and action is being taken to improve quality of service, but perhaps this is not the issue after all,” says Prinsloo. “Why, if we have professional operators competing with rail, did they not win the business ahead of the private transport operator?” He believes there’s more to the story than the level of service provided by T ransnet Freight Rail (formerly Spoornet). “It could be in our tax laws or depreciation on vehicles allowed by the Receiver of Revenue.” The facts however speak for themselves. Own road transport (not for a reward) increased its total freight market share from 58% in 1991 to 60.4% in 2004. In tonnage terms this form of road transport increased its annual tonnage from 370.5mt in 1991 to 510.87mt in 2004. Outsourced road transport operators (transport for reward) retained their percentage share of the overall market with overall tonnage increasing from 156.6mt in 1991 to 209.1mt in 2004. Rail transport, excluding the dedicated iron ore and coal lines, lost the most traffic. Its percentage share of the overall freight market dropped from 14.2% (90.9mt) in 1991 to 9.8% or 83 mt in 2004. And while reasons for its poor performance have received wide publicity, Prinsloo believes that the industry has possibly missed the point. “It’s a case of two dogs fighting about a bone and the third dog walking away with it."