South African business should prepare for more policy uncertainty – at least until 2029. This is the word from independent political analyst Ongama Mtimka. “If the current situation has been unsettling, I am afraid it is not going to be any more certain any time soon. There is going to be a protracted transition over the next few years as we see a long-term reconfiguration of the political system. I believe we are only going to see some relative stability around 2029.” Mtimka said while the strength of the opposition was expected to grow incrementally during this time, the majority party system in South Africa was under threat as the ANC continued to fragment due to ongoing “bruising internal battles”. Whilst the policy outlook remained uncertain, Mtimka said, it would be centrist, not veering to the left or right. This was despite ongoing tensions being caused by extremist parties. Using the example of the EFF, Mtimka said looking at their manifesto it was clear that even they embraced a more centrist policy. He said the biggest driver of change in South Africa remained the implosion of the ANC. “At the moment we are very ripe for just such an implosion – especially in the lead-up to next year’s policy conference.” At the same time the DA remained “soul searching” as it continued its efforts to become a truly representative party. “The EFF on the other hand is seeking legitimacy,” said Mtimka, who added while the country should not prepare to write the obituary of the ANC just yet, indications were increasingly pointing to a coalition government come 2024. “The ANC will be pushed below the 50% mark and the majority party system will be done away with. They will need a coalition partner to govern with,” he predicted.
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I believe we are only going to see some relative stability around 2029. – Ongama Mtimka