The express cargo market is gearing up for an unprecedented surge in growth as projections indicate a substantial uptick in demand locally as well as in the rest of the world.According to Garry Marshall, CEO of the South African Express Parcel Association (Saepa), few figures are available for the local market. “Globally, the market was valued at $381 billion in 2021. A projected compound annual growth of 5.7% is expected to see the market grow to around $658bn by 2031. This is f lat growth of 72% over the ten-year period,” he said during a recent presentation to the Transport Forum.While no figures are available for the South African market, Marshall said the express cargo industry was estimated to be valued at around R20bn. “Using the same annual growth rate of 5.7%, we can expect to see our local industry grow to at least R34bn by 2031. Our expectations are, in fact, for a higher growth rate that will take the industry closer to R40bn.”E-commerce, in its diverse forms from B2B to B2C and C2C, continues to fuel this growth. Marshall emphasised the paradigm shift within the industry, heralding the era of "quick commerce" where goods are delivered within hours, catering not only to groceries but extending across various product categories. The rise of platforms like Facebook Marketplace underscores the exponential growth in C2C deliveries, further amplifying the need for efficient and swift logistics solutions.Additionally, the evolution of X2C, where a single courier manages multiple deliveries at a common address, presented an intriguing growth avenue, said Marshall. “The integration of the Internet of Things (IoT ) a d d s value, enabling couriers to perform local processing, expanding the scope of services offered during deliveries,” he said.Ref lecting on the trajectory of the industry, Marshall noted that the concept of " just in time" practices pioneered by the Japanese in the early '80s was a pivotal moment for the express sector. This practice revolutionised supply chains, emphasising the need to fulfil orders promptly, optimising efficiency.Fast-forward through decades of challenges, including the recent upheavals caused by events like the Covid-19 pandemic, Marshall said a resounding truth remained – humans craved immediacy, even more now thanks to e-commerce. “It is this fundamental inclination that continues to drive growth in our industry. It also encapsulates the essence of the express cargo industry – a realm where waiting is minimised, and speed is paramount.”Marshall said his outlook for the express industry remained extremely positive and opportunities continued to evolve out of the challenges the sector faced. He highlighted how the relentless expansion of e-commerce, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences were driving growth.
Outlook positive as opportunities evolve
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