Mining investments on upward trajectory

Growing pressure on copper supplies due to vehicle electrification and the rise of data centres is attracting mining investment in Zambia. “Copper is essential for the generation, transmission and use of electricity. But the demand for copper will outrun supply unless there is major adjustment across the copper supply system,” warns an S&P Global study. It sees copper demand driven by four “vectors” – core economic demand (appliances, computers, construction); energy transition and addition; the electrification of Africa and defence. “Without meaningful expansion of supply, the result could be a 10 million metric ton shortfall by 2040,” the study states. There is competition for ownership and control of the Zambian minerals between the West and East. China’s foothold in the Copperbelt is being challenged by the United States and Europe. According to Paul Nantulya of the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, China controls over half of global critical minerals production and an estimated 87% of processing and refining. Over 600 Chinese firms have invested more than $3.5 billion in Zambia’s Copperbelt region, he says. Chinese firms have pledged another $5bn in recent years to help Zambia achieve its target of producing three million tons of copper annually. In a late response to the Chinese strategy, the US, EU and African Development Bank have collectively pledged more than $10bn for Lobito Corridor infrastructure, with US commitments alone exceeding $4bn by the end of 2024. The EU’s 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act and its 2023 Strategic Partnership Roadmap with the DRC, later extended to Zambia, Namibia and Rwanda, are seen as a coordinated Western push to reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled mineral supply chains. Zambia’s copper expansion has been powered by the revival of legacy mines and new greenfield projects, with Vedanta Resources relaunching Konkola Copper Mine with a $1.3bn investment in late 2024. ER