Lines predict return to ‘normal’ trade patterns

In the current global economic climate, change appears to be the only constant. And the Far East trade is no exception. “The last normal year we had was 2008,” says Safmarine’s SA trade director Alex de Bruyn, “and not specifically on the Far East route.” “The global economic downturn hit all trades – and in 2010, because of the impact of the World Cup and the unexpected rebound as a result of capacity withdrawal in 2009, ships were better utilised. This was particularly true on the Safmarine Safari service where traditionally the first six months westbound are slow with a peak in the second half of the year resulting in a marked shortage of capacity. “That’s when we usually bring in the extra capacity.” But in 2009 there wasn’t much of a peak because of the global economic downturn and in 2010, because of the World Cup, there was an almost complete reverse – with strong flows in the first six months and no significant peak in the second six months. De Bruyn expects a return to ‘normality’ in 2011 and early signs are that this will be the case. “We’ve noticed that our vessels are getting fuller and as a consequence of supply and demand, rates are firming – which is the traditional pattern for the trade.”