On 10 July 2026, the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) announced the initiation of a safeguard investigation against the increased imports of flat-rolled products of iron, non-alloy steel or other alloy steel (not including stainless steel), whether in coils or not in coils, (including products cut-to-length and ‘narrow strip’), not further worked than cold-rolled (cold-reduced), not clad, plated or coated (herewith referred to as cold-rolled products), classifiable under tariff subheadings 7209.15, 7209.16, 7209.17, 7209.18, 7209.25, 7209.26, 7209.27, 7209.29, 7211.23, 7211.29, 7211.90 and 7225.50, on which comment is due by 31 July 2026.
Based on the information submitted, ITAC decided that the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) industry had submitted prima facie information to indicate that:
- The events cited can be regarded as unforeseen developments that led to the surge or increase in volumes of imports;
- The SACU industry is suffering serious injury; and
- There is a causal link between the serious injury suffered by the SACU industry and the surge in import volumes.
The application was lodged by ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd (AMSA). AMSA is the only producer of the subject product in the SACU region, and accordingly, constitutes 100% of the domestic production of the like product in SACU. The serious injury information submitted by AMSA accounts for a major share of the total SACU production.
ITAC found that the imported product is a ‘like product’ and/or ‘directly competitive product’ to the SACU product.
Unforeseen developments
- AMSA submitted that a confluence of events underlies the unforeseen developments supporting the application. In summary, AMSA stated that during the Uruguay Round of negotiations, South Africa did not foresee the following events:
- There is a persistent global oversupply and weak demand for cold-rolled steel. The persistent global oversupply of cold-rolled steel, exacerbated by ongoing investments in cold-rolling capacity and weakening demand in major world markets, has resulted in significant excess production and export capacity that is being diverted to more open markets, such as SACU.
- Major global economies are imposing trade remedies and tariff barriers, restricting traditional cold-rolled steel exports.
- As a direct consequence, trade flows are being diverted towards more open markets with lower tariff protection, including SACU.
Surge of imports
AMSA submitted prima facie evidence of a significant increase in imports of the subject product over the period of investigation. The sudden, recent, significant and sharp increase in import volumes occurred between 2023 and 2024. The increase in import volumes continued in 2025.
Serious injury
The period of investigation for data evaluation for the purposes of determining the allegation of serious injury is 01 January 2023 to 31 December 2025.
AMSA alleged and submitted prima facie information that it is experiencing serious injury, as evidenced by declines in sales volumes, market share and profitability.
AMSA submitted additional information to substantiate its serious injury allegation.
Causal link
ITAC found that there was prima facie evidence of a causal link between the serious injury suffered by the SACU industry and the increase in import volumes arising from those unforeseen developments.