Industry leaders’ predictions fall short of reality

I have had occasion to read
the Freight & Container
Weekly (precursor to FTW)
dated August 21-28, 1987.
It contained a special
feature titled “The next
10 years”. Amongst the
respondents who were asked
to look into their crystal
balls were youthful-looking
industry leaders – Tiger
Wessels, Barry Saxton,
Richard Wilkinson and Pat
Henegan.
Here are some of the
interesting statements
made: “the emphasis will be
away from clearing and into
forwarding”; “there will be
a few large companies and
some small operators who
have two or three accounts”;
“80% of all import and
export transactions
entrusted to agents are
handled by Renfreight,
Safcor, Grindrod Cotts,
WTC and Micor”; “there
are two key requirements
– people skills and the
systems behind the people”;
“own computer systems and
satellite communications
will assist agents to rapidly
move away from being
paper pushers and into a
paperless society”.
Actual experience over
the past 22 years shows how
difficult it is to project the
future of this challenging
industry of ours.
Customs clearance is
very much alive and a
significant source of an
agent’s income.
There are many, many
smaller to medium-sized
agents who are making a
very nice living.
The top five agents
certainly do not control
80% of the business.
Where oh! where is the
pool of trained people so
desperately needed? And
our game is far off being
paperless although EDI has
certainly helped.
In the same edition
there is an article headed
“SATS outlines express
masterplan”. A subtitle
claims “160kph
freight trains will link
50 distribution points”.
Commentary then
suggested that the country’s
biggest freight operator,
branded as inefficient and
unreliable, was changing
its image, thanks mainly
to the introduction of PX
container rates and the Fast
Freight service.
Jan Rhoodie was quoted
as saying that the express
transport market would
consist of SATS and a
number of road hauliers
– a few medium to small
companies who would
specialise in the conveyance
of specific commodities.
How wrong can the
future be!
Why not get the current
industry leaders to give
their views on the second
decade of the 21 century?
Chris Richards, Chris
Richards Consultancy,
Johannesburg.