Industry leaders’ predictions fall short of reality

I have had occasion to read the Freight & Container Weekly (precursor to FTW) dated August 21-28, 1987. It contained a special feature titled “The next 10 years”. Amongst the respondents who were asked to look into their crystal balls were youthful-looking industry leaders – Tiger Wessels, Barry Saxton, Richard Wilkinson and Pat Henegan. Here are some of the interesting statements made: “the emphasis will be away from clearing and into forwarding”; “there will be a few large companies and some small operators who have two or three accounts”; “80% of all import and export transactions entrusted to agents are handled by Renfreight, Safcor, Grindrod Cotts, WTC and Micor”; “there are two key requirements – people skills and the systems behind the people”; “own computer systems and satellite communications will assist agents to rapidly move away from being paper pushers and into a paperless society”. Actual experience over the past 22 years shows how difficult it is to project the future of this challenging industry of ours. Customs clearance is very much alive and a significant source of an agent’s income. There are many, many smaller to medium-sized agents who are making a very nice living. The top five agents certainly do not control 80% of the business. Where oh! where is the pool of trained people so desperately needed? And our game is far off being paperless although EDI has certainly helped. In the same edition there is an article headed “SATS outlines express masterplan”. A subtitle claims “160kph freight trains will link 50 distribution points”. Commentary then suggested that the country’s biggest freight operator, branded as inefficient and unreliable, was changing its image, thanks mainly to the introduction of PX container rates and the Fast Freight service. Jan Rhoodie was quoted as saying that the express transport market would consist of SATS and a number of road hauliers – a few medium to small companies who would specialise in the conveyance of specific commodities. How wrong can the future be! Why not get the current industry leaders to give their views on the second decade of the 21 century? Chris Richards, Chris Richards Consultancy, Johannesburg.