Trade growth in the first half of 2025 has recorded positive growth, despite increasing trade policy uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and a challenging global economic environment.
That’s according to the latest United Nations Trade and Development (Unctad) Global Trade Update, which reports that global trade trends continued the gradual upward trajectory that began in the second half of 2023.
Over recent quarters, both goods and services trade have shown consistent growth, largely driven by the strong performance of developing countries, the research reveals.
However, in Q1 2025, developed economies outpaced developing ones in trade growth, primarily due to a surge in imports by the United States ahead of anticipated tariff increases and robust export activity from the European Union.
In contrast, the report points out that South–South trade remained relatively subdued, although Africa registered strong export growth.
Forecasts for Q2 2025 point to continued growth in both goods and services trade. Preliminary data shows that China’s exports remained resilient in April and May, driven by rising intra-regional trade and trade with Africa. United States’ exports also increased in April. However, imports into the United States fell sharply q-o-q, reflecting the impact of newly imposed tariffs and the unusually high volume of imports in Q1, as businesses rushed to bring in goods ahead of the tariff increases.
The report warns that in the second half of 2025, continued trade resilience will depend heavily on policy clarity, geo-economic developments, and supply chain adaptability.
On the negative side, global economic growth is expected to slow down in many regions, suggesting that international trade may face slower growth. Moreover, the potential imposition of higher tariffs in the United States—and the risk of broader trade conflicts—pose significant downside risks.
A negative signal also comes from the latest reading of China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, which often reflects weakening manufacturing activity and can signal reduced demand for imports and softening export orders. However, the research reveals that growing regional integration may provide some support to global trade.
