South Africa will remain reliant on fossil fuels for energy generation in the long-term despite efforts to increase the use of renewables.
Kevin Baart, head of strategic projects at the South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia), says it is estimated that by 2040 South Africa will still be getting at least 47% of its energy from coal and 21% from oil.
This is similar to many developing regions in the world where fossil fuel remains high despite efforts to decarbonise.
“There is a lot of focus in South Africa on renewables as well, but the reality is that the reliance and demand in the long term will be on fossil fuels,” he said. “Most developing countries are seeing a demand for gas and oil that is significantly higher compared to that of advanced economies. It suggests that fossil fuels will still be around for a significant amount of time although there will be a change in the type of demand.”
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) which has modelled different scenarios within this changing global energy system, oil consumption has in fact increased. Says Baart: “In the IEA new policies scenario, global oil demand will continue to grow, albeit slowly. It will only peak in 2040 when demand is expected to be at least 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) greater than today. “
Baart says demand for diesel is set to increase in this scenario.
“China will become the world’s single largest consumer of oil in the 2030s and the largest net oil importer in history. Demand in developing economies will continue to grow while demand in advanced economies will drop.”
-Liesl Venter
