Imagine disgruntled members of the former Transkei Defence Force taking over Port St Johns by force and declaring an independent republic with its own set of laws – many of which are unconstitutional. Or a traditional leader in KwaZulu-Natal deciding to secede St Lucia from the rest of the country – and successfully beating off the army when it decided to take action to preserve South African sovereignty. It is safe to say that what is left of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange would collapse and there would be national and international reactions and repercussions. Well, that is pretty much what happened in the north of Mozambique during August, with the port of Mocimboa da Praia being seized by militants – but without much official regional or international reaction.This is reflected in the article summarising economic prospects for Mozambique elsewhere in this feature – none of the reports cited mentioned the insurgency as a major risk. Members of an armed group calling itself “Al-Shabaab” launched their first assault in Mocimboa da Praia district in October 2017, attacking government institutions, including a police station, and killing two police officers. Since then the attacks, which have displaced more than 300 000 people and targeted civilians, have grown increasingly violent. “This armed group is responsible for untold suffering in Cabo Delgado. They have reduced people’s homes to ashes through coordinated arson attacks, killed and beheaded civilians, looted food and property, and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes,” says Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s director for East and Southern Africa.Al-Shabaab is understood to be supported by the Islamic State (IS). Earlier, IS issued a media release claiming that it had taken over two military bases near Mocimboa da Praia, killed Mozambican soldiers, and captured weaponry, including machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. The lack of reaction and support for the Mozambican government is concerning because of the potential repercussions for the country and the region as a whole. A month after the invasion of the port, Total SE chief executive officer Patrick Pouyanne felt the need to publicly call on European nations to help Mozambique to reoccupy its own territory. Total plans to spend $20 billion to extract gas from below the ocean and to process it for export to customers in Europe and Asia. Speaking at a media conference, he said: “Western powers are realising that a Daesh enclave is settling within Mozambique.” This is “a major problem” for East African stability. Logistically, Mocimboa da Praia has become an important port for the landing of cargo bound for offshore gas projects about 60km away, which are being developed by international oil companies, including Total. It is 80 kilometres south of Palma, which is where the onshore gas “trains” that will scrub and compress the gas are being built. Palma is 284 kilometres from the border crossing with Tanzania on the Rovuma River. Mozambique is losing control over more of its territory as the insurgents drive villagers from their homes in the region.This poses dual logistics challenges – the first being providing housing, food and medicines for over 300 000 people in an area with minimal infrastructure, in addition to attacks on convoys. The second is how to continue supplying the construction companies working on the gas projects. There is consensus that military power alone is not enough to put an end to the crisis,Global Risk Insights says the marginalisation of the Muslim population in Cabo Delgado appears to have fanned the flames of insurgency. “Poverty, joblessness, land dispossession, and human rights violations have left an excellently fertile ground for people to turn to the insurgents. Despite the vast amounts of money invested into the region, tangible benefits for the populace have not materialised,” it says in its analysis. The risks spread beyond Cabo Delgado and into South Africa and the region as a whole. In a September 3 presentation to a parliamentary committee, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) warned that the risks to South Africa included an increase in refugees seeking asylum and disruptions to South Africa’s imports of natural gas from Mozambique. Foreign minister Naledi Pandor told the committee that South Africa was willing to provide support to the Mozambican government if and when asked. For Mozambican trucking companies it is déjà vu – many were founded during the civil war, and remember having to move in escorted convoys and only during the day.
