If SA could retain 50% of the
exporters that come and go in
any one year, it could grow the
economy – which is projected
to grow at about 0.7% in
2016 – by an additional half
a percentage point, said
independent economist Dr
André Gouws.
While the export industry
comprises about 23 000 to 25
000 exporters in any one year,
it gains about 6 000 new ones
each year. But unfortunately,
according to Gouws, about the
same number also withdraw
from the export trade.
“Had we been able to retain
half these exporters since
2000, by this year SA would
have had more than 60 000
exporters,” Gouws said.
To get to this figure, he used
the potential exporter growth
rate between 2000 and 2012
(See graphic), and extrapolated
it to 2016.
He also noted that this 50%
retention of exporters each
year would have amounted to a
R4.8-billion increase in exports
and a 0.52% increase in SA’s
gross domestic product (GDP)
growth each year.
“Even a 30% increase in
exporter numbers would have
seen a R2.9bn increase in
exports and GDP growth of
0.31% a year,” he said.
And, he added, if exporters
could each have increased
exports by 6% a year over the
period, there would have been a
total R56bn increase in exports
and a 3-4.8% growth in GDP.
A large proportion of all this,
according to Gouws, would
have applied to SA-EU trade.
In 2015 exports from SA to
the EU28 totalled more than
US$17.1bn – or 21% of SA’s
global exports.
Also, nearly 30% of SA’s
imports are sourced from
the EU28, with EU-SA
trade amounting to 25% of
our global trade. The UK
alone comprises 3.7% of SA’s
global trade.
And, with Brexit having
potentially thrown a spanner
in our EU and UK trade works,
Gouws has three suggestions
on how to retain trade at its
current levels.
He said that it was
important to start negotiating
with the UK immediately for
retention of the conditions
in current trade agreements.
Added to that, SA must ensure
that there are no new tariffs
or non-tariff barriers (NTBs)
to trade in the EU or UK.
And finally, he recommended
that SA exporters should be
informed about all agreements
with the EU and how to
exploit them.
