Spot rates in global freight’s ocean sector are still trending down, according to the World Container Index (WCI) by maritime consultancy Drewry.
Asia-Europe rotations are exhibiting what can best be described as a “wind-down” from the peak season, says shipping analyst and CEO of Vespucci Maritime, Lars Jensen.
He says that, according to the WCI, rates on the Pacific trade are almost back to the levels seen before the Red Sea crisis.
Indeed, prior to the situation south of the Suez Canal, in the last quarter of 2023, global spot-rate declines due to overcapacity led to widespread loss-making among carriers.
Presently, that return to pre-crisis Pacific rate levels appears accurate – but it is confined to that trade lane only, Jensen has pointed out.
He also argues that rates would not fully revert to pre-crisis lows, particularly due to the added costs of rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope and the improving supply-demand balance favouring carriers.
The expectation is that this will support contract-rate increases.
Furthermore, Jensen points out that Asia-Europe rates were already plateauing ahead of Chinese New Year, signalling that the capacity disruption was not as severe as initially feared.
