Downturn likely to last till end of next year

MAKING AN already not-so-good scenario even worse - quicker and for longer, was how Pieter Haasbroek, group economist at Barlows saw the immediate economic effect of the US plane-bombing. "Basically," he told FTW, "the US was heading toward recession. This will just give it a helping push into it, and it may be prolonged as a consequence." It will be almost a year before the US economy can expect to come out of this downturn, he added. "No upturn until the second or third quarter of next year is really possible," was his forecast. Asked how this would impact on SA, Haasbroek said: "If an American sneezes, SA catches pneumonia. We will certainly suffer from the spin-off." But just how badly he would not venture to say. There can be no doubt, Haasbroek added, that exports will shrink in line with any US and international slow-down. But imports, which will be increasingly expensive in SA rand terms, and less in demand in a slowing economy, are also likely to drop.