Disruption continues to be the primary demand driver in the container market. According to Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst for Bimco, the rerouting of ships via the Cape has had a substantial impact on ship demand, which is projected to grow three times faster than cargo volumes in 2024.
"However, we anticipate a slowdown in ship demand growth in the second half of 2024 due to weaker cargo volume growth," he said. "Despite this, the overall outlook for 2024 remains stronger than 2023, with forecast ship demand growth expected to end between 15% and 16%, while ship supply is projected to expand by 10.3%."
Looking ahead to 2025, Rasmussen acknowledged the challenges of making accurate predictions given the ongoing uncertainty in the Red Sea. "We’ve outlined two scenarios," he explained. "In our base scenario, we assume that vessels will safely resume Red Sea and Suez Canal routes throughout 2025. Alternatively, our second scenario assumes that the current rerouting patterns will persist without any significant changes."
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