Cellular fleet growth catches up with demand

Alan Peat THE GROWTH of the world’s cellular container fleet is now at a pace that should see capacity supply catching up with demand, according to the latest figures compiled by BRS-Alphaliner. The fleet is set to grow by 11.7% per annum during the next three years - assuming that no ships are scrapped - and is expected to reach 9.24-Mteu capacity by January 1, 2007. In deadweight terms, this fleet will total 125-Mtons - an increase of 10.8% a year - and is forecast to reach the 10-Mteu mark during the fourth quarter of 2007. This contrasts with inadequate growth of the cellular fleet during the five years 1999-2003, when it grew by 9.1% - which proved hardly sufficient to fulfil the needs, according to the BRS analysis. Over a longer span, the average growth rate stands at 10.7% for 10-years and 9.9% for 15-years. The schedule of deliveries is: 2004 : 209 ships totalling 722000-teu capacity; 2005 : 262 ships of 910000-teu; 2006 : 222 ships of 980 000-teu. With deliveries due to be spread over a four year period, the orderbook at April 1, 2004 listed 776 cellular ships totalling 3.15-Mteu. This, said BRS, represents 46.5% of the existing fleet - which adds up to 3 216 ships with an aggregate capacity of 6.75-Mteu. On the more mega-size side of the orderbook, ships of more than 4 000-teu account for 77% of the orders on hand, while this proportion is 40% for the existing fleet. The first quarter of this year saw 138 ships of 540000-teu total capacity added to the list - a figure comparable with orders passed during the fourth quarter of 2003, according to BRS.