Box-overboard weather events at sea have increased from an average of 1 382 containers lost annually in 2018 and 2019, to about 3 000 in 2020 when the ONE Apus lost 1 816 boxes in rough seas north of Hawaii in November last year.
That was the highest number of containers ever lost off a carrier in recorded maritime history.
Little over two months later, in February this year, the Maersk Eindhoven lost 260 boxes during a sailing from Xiamen to Los Angeles, resulting in a lengthy stay at the Port of Yokohama as insurance and cargo issues were sorted out.
More recently, in yet another cargo incident towards the end of October, the ZIM Kingston first lost some 40 boxes in heavy swells off the British Columbian coast.
As more boxes tumbled off its deck, finally exceeding 100 containers, the Kingston was directed to Constance Banks where it remains at anchorage.
Unfortunately, as the storm subsided, the Israeli line’s vessel also caught fire, presumably from carrying potassium amyl xanthate, an organosulfur compound used in the separation of mined ore.
Investigations are currently under way to confirm what exactly triggered an onboard container fire, but indications are that adverse swells could have ignited the vessel’s hazardous cargo.
Also under investigation is the reason why the Kingston remained at sea off the coast of Cape Flattery instead of heading to the safer waters of the Juan de Fuca Strait after a heavy weather warning was issued.
It is such errors of judgement, probably rooted in outdated modes of thinking around ocean conditions, that weather analyst Michael Page believes should be scrutinised.
Interviewed at a time when global warming is under the spotlight at the UN’s Cop26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, the meteorologist from Flawless Forecast said carriers would have to adjust to conditions where oceans were far less safe than they used to be.
Rising sea temperatures, even in the northern Pacific, have resulted in what meteorologists call bombogenesis, literally interpreted as “the sea bombing out” because of a low-pressure system of cold and hot air moving over warmer water.
Said Page: “Without question, climate change is creating warmer oceans, adding fuel and allowing these storms to get even stronger, generating lower pressures, bigger waves, and potentially more loss for ships who then have to go through those waves.”
He added that it was the reason why more cargo was being lost at sea than ever before.
In addition, the current incoming wet weather phenomenon of La Nina (“The Girl”), as opposed to its drought-causing counterpart El Nino (“The Boy”), is causing bombogenesis to occur closer to coastlines, hence the recent storm west of Cape Flattery.
Page said that although weather data from the Pacific area south of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands remained insufficient because the seas there used to be quieter and more predictable, meteorological observation had recorded ocean temperatures rising by several degrees, resulting in stronger storms that were more powerful than the norm.
“Lines are going to have to deal with that, especially coming into their final approach off the western coast of Canada.”
Although his assessment is area specific, Page warned that weather conditions tended to feed off one another.
As soon as seas calm in one area, adverse weather shifts elsewhere across the globe to bomb out.
