Ed Richardson
MOTOR manufacturers are upbeat about prospects for the South African economy in the new year.
Commenting on new
vehicle sales for November, the National Association
of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) said with macro economic indicators signalling an improvement in economic activity levels in South Africa, domestic new car and commercial vehicle markets were expected to continue to show further steady growth.
Following an improvement in new vehicle sales volumes in 2000 in excess of 15%, Naamsa is forecasting growth of between 7,5 and 10% for 2001.
Volkswagen South Africa marketing director Graham Hardy shares Naamsa's optimism:
The good news for the industry is that the growth in the new car sales cycle looks set to continue for some months to come, says Hardy.
The economy has started to reflect higher rates of growth and consumers are once again beginning to use credit to finance their new vehicle purchases. Demand for instalment sales finance is currently growing at an annual rate of 7,7%, he says.
Interest rates are expected to remain affordable.
In fact the real prime rate, an important driver for new car demand, is currently at its lowest level since 1995 and could well fall further in the months ahead, says Hardy.
If current forecasts of economic growth in excess of 3% are realised, the 2001 market is expected to grow by at least 5% to a level between 235 000 and 240 000, he says.
Ford South Africa is also confident.
We remain optimistic that the economic situation will continue to be stable and we expect the next few months to be substantially bolstered by an improving investment climate and the level of industrial activity expected during the year 2001, says Marcos S. Oliveira, CEO and group managing director of Ford SA.
We are encouraged by the fact that both the medium and heavy commercial vehicle sectors held their own versus October, with each showing an increase in sales over November 1999, he says.
According to Naamsa, sales of new light commercial vehicles, bakkies and minibuses at 8905 units reflected an improvement of 596 units or 7,2% compared to the 8309 unit sales of the corresponding month last year.
Sales of vehicles in the medium and heavy truck segments of the industry during November, 2000 had also recorded gains, and at 508 and 648 units respectively, had registered increases of 9,9% or 46 units, in the case of medium commercials, and 16,1% or 90 units, in the case of heavy trucks and buses - compared to the corresponding month last year.
Taking into account the fact that inflation appears to be under control and that interest rates have not increased, we believe that South Africa is well-positioned to see real economic growth during 2001, says Oliveira.
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