British maritime risk-management firm, Ambrey, has warned of an elevated threat to merchant vessels operating in the Black Sea following a major escalation in cross-belligerent targeting of vessels outside traditional high-risk zones.
An Ambrey intelligence brief released on Monday warned that six merchant vessels were directly targeted across the Black Sea within a 24-hour window on May 28 and 29. The incidents mark a significant spillover of the Russia-Ukraine conflict into neutral waters, specifically impacting regions previously perceived as safer environments.
“Three vessels were struck by Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) inside the Turkish EEZ; three were struck by Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the Ukrainian maritime corridor off Odesa,” Ambrey reported.
The targeted vessels inside the Turkish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) were tankers linked to Russian hydrocarbon exports, including the James II, Altura and Velora.
Ambrey noted that at least two of the Ukrainian USVs, assessed as MAGURA V5 systems, failed to detonate on impact during a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer operation. This malfunction left “uncontrolled craft adrift”, prompting the Turkish Coast Guard to establish an exclusion zone.
At the same time, Russian retaliatory UAV strikes hit outbound commercial ships from Ukraine flying Vanuatu, Panama and Comoros flags. A strike on the Vanuatu-flagged vessel specifically targeted the bridge and accommodation block, injuring two crew members. Ambrey noted this “indicated intent to inflict casualties, not merely disable” the vessel.
“The threat to merchant traffic in non-JWLA Black Sea waters – Romanian, Bulgarian, Turkish and Georgian EEZs, is assessed as elevated and likely to persist through the summer operating season,” Ambrey reported.
The security firm has advised ship operators to urgently commission dynamic voyage threat assessments, maintain enhanced visual lookouts outside the JWLA, and designate clear crew safe muster points away from high-value aim points such as the bridge and accommodation superstructures.
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