Global online spending for Black Friday 2025 is projected to reach between $80 billion and $82bn, with US online sales alone forecast at $12-12.5bn.
Market analysts have found that retailers and exporters are gearing up early for the annual e-commerce event, signalling robust consumer demand and a busy sales season ahead.
Preparedness is prime this year, with many businesses extending sales over several weeks rather than concentrating on a single day – a crowd-coping trend that recorded strong traction last year.
Enhanced by AI-driven personalisation and influencer-led campaigns, retailers expect stronger conversion rates, even if website traffic growth begins to plateau.
Exporters in consumer electronics, fashion, health and beauty are already planning inventory allocations and logistics to capture demand. The trend towards multi-week discounting is now also well established.
Major US and European retailers have already launched pre-Black Friday campaigns from late October, aiming to spread fulfilment volumes and avoid bottlenecks. Exporters are positioning stock early to secure freight capacity, particularly in high-demand consumer electronics and apparel.
Mastercard SpendingPulse expects US holiday retail sales (excluding autos) to grow 3.6% year-on-year between November 1 and Christmas.
Within that, e-commerce is forecast to expand by 7.9%, compared with a 2.3% increase in store sales.
Software tracker Salesforce projects a more subdued 2.1% increase in US online holiday sales to $288bn, citing cautious consumer sentiment amid inflation and tighter household budgets.
Meanwhile, Adobe Analytics continues to highlight the growing role of mobile commerce, Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) options, and the earlier spread of promotions. Adobe data from 2024 showed Black Friday US online sales at $10.8bn, up 10.2% on 2023.
Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, said consumers were comfortably in the gift-giving spirit as price reductions and deals occur across sectors, supporting budgets for holiday shopping.
Steve Sadove, senior adviser at Mastercard and former Saks CEO, described shoppers as more strategic in their shopping, prioritising promotions they believe hold the greatest value and opening their wallets with more intentional distribution.
Adobe’s lead analyst Vivek Pandya said that surpassing the $10bn mark in 2024 was a milestone and pointed to tailwinds that could prop up online growth for Black Friday moving forward, as consumers grow more comfortable with mobile shopping and AI-driven tools.
For exporters, particularly in electronics, apparel, health and beauty, Black Friday 2025 is a critical test of supply chain resilience.
Stock positioning, freight capacity and inventory planning are already under way to avoid disruption as sales roll out earlier than ever.
Analysts stress that retailers who can combine AI-powered marketing, agile inventory management and efficient global logistics will be best placed to capture growth.
With inflation continuing to shape household budgets, deep discounts and flexible payment methods are likely to be decisive in winning share. Black Friday remains one of the most significant global drivers of e-commerce, underpinning fourth-quarter revenues for both retailers and exporters.
The 2025 season is expected to show whether new strategies - from extended sales calendars to digital marketing innovation - can deliver growth in an increasingly competitive environment.
