2025 has been marked by multiple demand shocks, shifting trade lanes and a level of regulatory disruption the airfreight industry has never seen before, according to Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, a global freight rate benchmarking and analytics platform.
Industry expectations at the start of the year were relatively straightforward, he said. “We anticipated demand growth would outpace supply, tariffs would cause some disruption, uncertainty over the Suez return would persist, e-commerce would continue to grow despite new regulations and sustainability pressures would intensify.”
Van de Wouw said demand predictions for 2025 were estimated for low single-digit growth. “That’s roughly where we ended up, around 4% for the full year,” he said. Rates normalised in the second quarter before rising again in November as demand once more outpaced supply.
Even when assessing demand, load factors, supply and rates, no one could have predicted the volatility that unfolded in 2025, Van de Wouw said. “The year was unique in how sudden changes in regulation impacted the industry, something we have never seen before.
“What is remarkable is that despite global uncertainty and downward economic pressure, airfreight still grew by around 4%. I would argue that growth happened becauseof the uncertainty,” he said.
E-commerce, however, took a major hit as a result of tightening legislation, pushing flows away from Asia and into Europe. “If we look at the supply side, we saw a little bit of growth, not too much. Load factors remain more or less stable compared to last year, but what we did see for the first time in many months, was a year-on-year decline in rates.”
According to Van de Wouw, while the numbers may suggest a stable market, with 3-5% growth, the reality on the ground was the opposite. “This year was extremely erratic. Because of the regulatory changes, freight forwarders, shippers and airlines had to work very hard to get goods to the end customer on time,” he said.
He added that the final months of the year had outperformed expectations. “If you’d asked me in September, I would not have been surprised if November posted zero or even negative growth versus 2024. Instead, the market held up better. My take on 2025 is that nobody could have predicted this. It has been a year of tremendous volatility.”
