Using advanced big data analytics, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) forecasts that air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter and that growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by year end.
The pace of growth for air cargo is however expected to be lower in 2023, given the slowing global economic growth, although long-term air cargo growth remains in line with the previously estimated trend indicating strong long-term growth.
Looking further ahead, airlines are expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of 2023, after three consecutive years of losses. Air passenger demand in 2024 is expected to be stronger, at around 4% higher than 2019. In terms of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), this translates to a growth of 0.7% over the 2019-2024 period.
“The air passenger forecasts Icao is announcing build on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022, as previously assessed by Icao statistical analysis,” said Icao Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar.
The number of passengers carried in 2022 increased by an estimated 47% compared to 2021, while revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) increased by around 70% over the same period, due mainly to the rapid recovery of most international routes. In terms of airlines’ annual passenger revenues, keeping yield and exchange rates at 2019 levels, Icao observed growth of an estimated 50% from 2021 to 2022.
This forecast recovery and growth for the world of civil aviation comes with the caveat that risks affecting international air transport do not escalate from current levels.
