While global demand for airfreight – measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) – rose by 5.9% year-on-year in October, there are several indicators showing that the sector may have passed the growth peak, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
“The inventory-to-sales ratio in the US is tracking sideways, indicating that the period when companies look to restock inventories quickly—which often gives air cargo a boost—has ended,” said Alexandre de Juniac, Iata director general and CEO, highlighting that the new new export orders component of the global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was stable.
Freight volumes are still expected to grow in 2018, although at a slower pace than in 2017.
Iata data further revealed that freight capacity, measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), had risen by 3.7% year-on-year in October. This was the 15th consecutive month in which demand growth outstripped capacity growth, which is positive for load factors, yields, and financial performance.
Airlines in all regions reported an increase in total year-on-year demand in October. However, in contrast, international freight growth slowed in all regions except Africa.
African carriers saw freight volumes rising to 30.3% last month, with capacity increasing by 9.2%.
During the same period international freight volumes grew by 28.5%. This is more than three times the five-year average growth pace of 9.4%. Demand has been boosted by very strong growth on the trade lane to and from Asia, which increased by more than 67% in the first nine months of the year.
