Home
FacebookSearchMenu
  • Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • News
  • Features
  • Knowledge Library
  • Columns
  • Customs
  • Jobs
  • Directory
  • FX Rates
  • Categories
    • Categories
    • Africa
    • Air Freight
    • BEE
    • Border Beat
    • COVID-19
    • Crime
    • Customs
    • Domestic
    • Duty Calls
    • Economy
    • Employment
    • Energy/Fuel
    • Events
    • Freight & Trading Weekly
    • Imports and Exports
    • Infrastructure
    • International
    • Logistics
    • Other
    • People
    • Road/Rail Freight
    • Sea Freight
    • Skills & Training
    • Social Development
    • Sustainability
    • Technology
    • Trade/Investment
    • Webinars
  • Contact us
    • Contact us
    • About Us
    • Advertise
    • Send us news
    • Editorial Guidelines
COVID-19
Economy
Employment
International
Other
People

World Bank predicts global growth of 4% - but vaccine rollout is key

08 Jan 2021
World Bank Group president David Malpass. Source: worldbank.org
0 Comments

Share

  • Facebook
  • Google+
  • LinkedIn
  • E-mail
  • Print

The global economy is expected to expand 4% in 2021, assuming an initial Covid-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread throughout the year.

A recovery is however likely to be subdued unless policymakers move decisively to tame the pandemic and implement investment-enhancing reforms, the World Bank says in its January 2021 Global Economic Prospects.

“Although the global economy is growing again after a 4.3% contraction in 2020, the pandemic has caused a heavy toll of deaths and illness, plunged millions into poverty, and may depress economic activity and incomes for a prolonged period. Top near-term policy priorities are controlling the spread of Covid-19 and ensuring rapid and widespread vaccine deployment. To support economic recovery, authorities also need to facilitate a reinvestment cycle aimed at sustainable growth that is less dependent on government debt,” the report stresses.

“While the global economy appears to have entered a subdued recovery, policymakers face formidable challenges — in public health, debt management, budget policies, central banking and structural reforms — as they try to ensure that this still fragile global recovery gains traction and sets a foundation for robust growth,” says World Bank Group president David Malpass. “To overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counter the investment headwind, there needs to be a major push to improve business environments, increase labour and product market flexibility, and strengthen transparency and governance.”

The collapse in global economic activity in 2020 is estimated to have been slightly less severe than previously projected, mainly due to shallower contractions in advanced economies and a more robust recovery in China. In contrast, disruptions to activity in the majority of other emerging market and developing economies were more acute than expected, the report explains.

The near-term outlook remains highly uncertain, and different growth outcomes are still possible, as a section of the report details. A downside scenario in which infections continue to rise and the rollout of a vaccine is delayed could limit the global expansion to 1.6% in 2021. Meanwhile, in an upside scenario, with successful pandemic control and a faster vaccination process, global growth could accelerate to nearly 5%.

Aggregate GDP in emerging market and developing economies, including China, is expected to grow 5% in 2021, after a contraction of 2.6% in 2020. China’s economy is expected to expand by 7.9% this year following 2% growth last year. Excluding China, emerging market and developing economies are forecast to expand 3.4% in 2021 after a contraction of 5% in 2020. Among low-income economies, activity is projected to increase 3.3% in 2021, after a contraction of 0.9% in 2020.

As severe crises did in the past, the pandemic is expected to leave long-lasting adverse effects on global activity. “If history is any guide, the global economy is heading for a decade of growth disappointments unless policymakers put in place comprehensive reforms to improve the fundamental drivers of equitable and sustainable economic growth.”  

From a regional point of view, economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa is on course to rise by 2.7%, according to the report.

Sign up to our mailing list and get daily news headlines and weekly features directly to your inbox free.
Subscribe to receive print copies of Freight News Features to your door.

Deployment of new RTGs at PoCT speeded up

Logistics

A general cargo vessel carrying a second batch of new RTGs is expected imminently.

Yesterday
0 Comments

ULCV successfully docks at Ngqura, makes history

Logistics
Sea Freight

“This achievement solidifies our status as a significant player in the maritime industry.” – TNPA

Yesterday
0 Comments

Trump tariffs – July 9 deadline draws nearer

Imports and Exports
Trade/Investment

One of the countries that has already learned its fate in the face of punishing duties is Vietnam.

Yesterday
0 Comments

Fuel price hikes a strain for consumers

Energy/Fuel

Double-digit price increases and a higher fuel levy will place financial pressure on households.

Yesterday
0 Comments

Pork for citrus? South Africa faces tough US trade choice

Imports and Exports

If SA’s disease-free status is compromised, PRRS could come at a heavy cost to local pork producers.

Yesterday
0 Comments

Carrier launches direct flights to London Gatwick

Air Freight

The new route enhances the Kenya-UK Economic Partnership Agreement.

Yesterday
0 Comments

Creecy reiterates rail cargo volume targets

Logistics
Road/Rail Freight

The intention to re-establish rail as the backbone of transport is fundamental to reforms in SA.

Yesterday
0 Comments

Resilience required for air sector disruption – executive

Air Freight

Air traffic in the region is expected to rise by an average of 6.4% annually.

02 Jul 2025
0 Comments

Insight of the week: legally ditching higher duties

The actual practice can be traced back to 1882, when an importer in the United States had sugar coated with molasses.

02 Jul 2025
0 Comments

How to avoid the fear of being evaluated

Freight & Trading Weekly
Logistics
Skills & Training

Lifelong learning has become the norm across all economic sectors, both in the UK and globally.

02 Jul 2025
0 Comments

Skills needed to unfreeze African growth potential

Logistics

Growth in demand for cold chain efficiencies is being driven by economic development and rising income.

02 Jul 2025
0 Comments

Iran seeks full control of Russian Caspian Sea terminal

Logistics

The port handles a broad range of goods, including grain, timber, metal products and fertilisers.

02 Jul 2025
0 Comments
  • More

FeatureClick to view

Cold Chain Logistics 4 July 2025

Border Beat

Forum tightens net against border corruption
25 Jun 2025
Police clamp down on cross-border crime
17 Jun 2025
Zim's anti-smuggling measures delay legitimate freight operations
06 Jun 2025
More

Poll

Has South Africa's ports turned the corner?

Featured Jobs

New

Road Logistics Pricing Specialist

Tiger Recruitment
East Rand
02 Jul
New

Operations Manager

Lee Botti & Associates
Cape Town
02 Jul
More Jobs
  • © Now Media
  • Privacy Policy
  • Freight News RSS
  • About Us
  • Advertise
  • Send us news
  • Contact us