If you’re concerned about the rand/dollar comparison, and are looking for fellow pessimists, maybe you should take note of what research analysts, Nomura, have to say.
They’re the people who, making their prediction for 2016 just after the Zumamobile ran over the then finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, touted an exchange rate of R19.00 to the dollar by year’s end (it actually finally closed around R13.73).
Now their model was blameless. It had come up with the rand at year-end ranging from R12.81 to the dollar to R19.00. But, apart from Nene, the time was full of high unemployment figures, political turbulence, low growth and other gloomy events, and Nomura plumped for the top end of the scale. Oh they eventually brought their rand forecasts in line with the reality. But, said Fin24, “the group conceded that it was not quick enough to adapt its forecast to the ever-changing state of local and global events”.
And for 2017?
The Nomura prediction is still based on a narrative of low growth and political turbulence and it reckons on a weakening rand – ending the year at about R15.50 to the dollar.
